NCAA Basketball

Gonzaga lost the National Championship on Saturday night, not tonight

We respect how Mark Few has developed the basketball program at the Gonzaga University over the past two decades.  He has built Gonzaga into a national powerhouse that should set the foundation for many years to come.

 

This year was a tremendous proving ground for Mark Few.  The Bulldogs were finally a Number 1 seed in the tournament.  They deserved this seeding after a tremendous year in which they dominated all but one team on the schedule.  They have impressive wins at Florida, at Arizona and verses Iowa State.  All three of those teams won at least one game in March Madness.

 
That been said, this is where we see a flaw in Cinderella’s path to the National Championship. Gonzaga has had one of the least challenging path to the final game of any team in history.  They dominated an over-matched South Dakota State team that was only down by 4 at half. Next game, they almost melted down verses an 8th seed.  Northwestern took them to the brink and if not for a missed goaltending and subsequent technical foul, the game might have had a different outcome.  Ask any Northwestern alum, Gonzaga was lucky to escape into the Sweet 16.

 
In the Sweet 16, Gonzaga played well against a tough West Virginia Mountaineer squad.  This was their most competitive game of the tournament. Few excelled in this situation and won a game that he might have lost in the past.  The Zags then caught their second major break (after the missed call against Northwestern).  11th seeded Xavier upset an Arizona Wildcats team that was primed to revenge their lost to the Zags in Tucson.  Xavier played their best game of the year to beat Arizona.  The Musketeers left everything on the court in one of the biggest upsets in March.  Gonzaga had a match-up with a spent Xavier team that was emotional and physically drained.  The end result was a dominating win by the Bulldogs to reach the Final Four.

 
In the Final Four, Gonzaga faced the 7th seed out of the East (South Carolina).  South Carolina was a 2nd tier SEC team that was making a magical run through the tournament.  The Gamecocks were living off borrowed time, but almost won the game after overcoming a 14-point deficit in the 2nd half. It was after this game that Gonzaga lost the National Championship.

 
As you can see with our picture, the coaches and their teams celebrated wins on Saturday night in completely different fashion.  The Tar Heels and Williams went back to the drawing board. Gonzaga and Few celebrated as if they won the title.

 
Whether it’s putting the toothpaste back in the tube or the genie back in the bottle, it will be very difficult for Gonzaga to capture this emotion and focus so soon after a celebratory win.

 
The advantage here for North Carolina is about focus and coaching.  Carolina and Gonzaga have talented enough players to win every game.   The injury to Berry is definitely a concern.  The experience of playing road games in the ACC has tested the Tar Heels’ mettle more so than Gonzaga had been tested in the West Coast Conference.  The difference in tonight’s game will come down to coaching and big game experience.

 
Williams is an experienced and consistence leader that has won two National Championships.  His last occurred in similar fashion when the Tar Heels were booted out of the ACC Tournament in 2009.  The path is very similar as that championship year.  By the way, Carolina faced the following seeds on their way to this game; 16,8,4,2 and 3.  Their road was much tougher as reflected in their last two games against Oregon and Kentucky.

 
We expect the Tar Heels to throw Theo Pinson at Williams-Goss.   NWG has never faced such a match-up this year.   Pinson is 6’6” and will smother Williams-Goss in a way that will disrupt the timing of his game.  This is the main question of tonight’s game;  how does Roy Williams defend against the main cog of the well-oiled Bulldog team, Nigel Williams-Goss?  NWG has shown the ability to strike at the most opportune time.  He did it again on Saturday night right when Gonzaga was on the brink of defeat to the 7th seeded Gamecocks.  His talent and timing is uncanny.

 
Tonight, will be a showcase of the strength of the North Carolina program.  The Tar Heels will have made a remarkable turnaround from the heartbreaking loss against Villanova.  Rare is the team that can climb the mountain after being so close to its peak only to fall in the final second.  They call it redemption.  We do too.

 
The books have provided a generous point spread with the North Carolina Tar Heels -1 (or -120 on the moneyline).  Since the betting public has brought down the line, you will be on the side of the sports books if you bet on North Carolina.  We always recommend the moneyline on short lines like on tonight’s game.  Vegas Sports® is positioned with bets in place the will reward us with a $3,600 win while only risking $100 (see our previous article).

 
Look again at the meme we created.  They say a picture is worth a thousand words.  I this case, we think it can be worth thirty-six hundred.  Good luck and Go Heels!

How we were able to bet North Carolina at 36-1 to win the National Championship

That’s right.  We are sitting on a nice payday if the North Carolina Tar Heels win the National Championship on Monday.  We will be risking $100 to win $3,600.   You could have too, if you followed us on Twitter.  Check it out and you might make a few bucks while you are at it.

As our friends know, we are as sound as a pound.  Whether analyzing sporting events, the stock market or making the community a better place to visit and live… our reputation is solid.  We know it sounds crazy, but we are literally risking $100 to win $3,600.

So how in the world did Vegas Sports® manage to risk $100 to make $3,600 if North Carolina wins the National Championship for the 6th time?

It’s a long story, but let’s dig into the details. Details are so key.  Frank, our friend that recently retired from Metro’s Forensic Lab, would be one to stress the importance of details.

We started with a principal balance of $2,000 to risk on future bets to win March Madness (ended up betting an additional $100 to bring our total to $2,100).  Basically, we placed long calls on teams we thought had the capabilities to win it all.

Our first bet was placed at the beautiful Wynn Las Vegas for $500.  This bet was made on November 26th, after Carolina won the Maui Invitational. We could tell that the team used the summer in Chapel Hill to get even stronger than a year before, just like we would expect from the Tar Heels.

We are going to list all of our bets for the National Championship by date:

11/26     Carolina (8-1)                                            $500 at Wynn to win $4,000
12/03     Duke (4.5 to 1)                                          $200 at Red Rock to win $900
12/24     Carolina (12-1)                                          $100 at Red Rock to win $1,200
02/04     Gonzaga (9-1)                                            $200 at Wynn to win $1800
02/04     Iowa State (300-1)                                   $100 at MGM to win $30,000
03/04     UCLA/KU/Duke/Nova (+140)               $800 at South Point to win $1,120
03/04     Kentucky (10-1)                                        $200 at MGM to win $2,000

Total bet: $2,100

 

If Carolina Wins:

+ $4,000 won at Wynn
+ $1,200 won at Red Rock
– $1,600 lost bets

+$3,600 won

 

If Gonzaga Wins:

+$1,800 won at Wynn
-$1,900 loss bets

-$100 lost

 

So, there it is.  Through strong analysis, experience and a little luck.  We have positioned ourselves to risk $100 in order to win $3,600.

The end result is that we have an excellent risk/reward set up for the National Championship game.  Another bonus has been a really fun March Madness.  Looks like it’s time for some popcorn, because we aren’t hedging this baby.  We are letting this bet ride.  Go Heels !!!

 

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Early exits will benefit these rested warriors in the NCAA Tournament

We are always looking for an edge.  An edge is hard to find in this town, but can be beneficial once discovered.

Momentum is probably the most important factor for a team entering the field of 68.  Some teams enter the Big Dance with more than enough energy (e.g., Duke) to carry them to the Sweet 16 and deeper, but what happens to the team that was shown an early ticket back home from their conference tournament?

Rest can lead to rust.  In the right situation, especially at this time of the season, an early exit can be as beneficial as a bye week in the NFL Playoffs. Seven teams standout to us.  The interesting variable is that each team has a solid coach leading the way, so watch out for deep runs from these select seven.  You might want to have these rested warriors making the Sweet 16 in your bracket.

 

North Carolina (Williams) – The Tar Heels won the National Championship the last time they were knocked out of the ACC Tournament as the #1 seed.  Enough said.

Louisville (Pitino) – The early exit might be best suited for this young team to refocus.  Pitino is the last coach anyone wants to face with a week off.

Kansas (Self) – Another quality team.  Our only question is the mindset of Josh Jackson.  Does he respond with his ‘lottery’ talent in full force? We say yes.

Purdue (Painter) – Swanigan, Edwards and Haas might be the best front court in the country.  A tough match-up for any team.

Virginia (Bennett) – The Cavs’ complex defense can confound any offense in the tournament.  Even more dangerous with time to prepare.

Baylor (Drew) – An athletic team that can dominate.  Baylor can make a knockout run at any point in a game, but has a glass jaw.

Dayton (Miller) – A wild card to make the Big Dance.  Three seniors lead the Flyers and will be a tough out if they get invited.  If they are relegated to the NIT, you can bet on them to advance all the way to Madison Square Garden.

Teaser Tuesday – We can do better !

Our apologizes, but we will not continue to put out inferior information.  Teaser Tuesday has been suspended until further notice.  The last two weeks have been unacceptable.   We would rather suspend Teaser Tuesday than put lipstick on a pig.  We like to win.  We like our friends to win.  As we always say, sports gambling is only fun when you win.  Therefore you will not see random selections or articles, just to meet a deadline.

 

Our first teaser was an excellent call with Florida State and Clemson on opening weekend, just beautiful.  The teased points covered the Clemson side of the bet.  Florida State covered outright.  That’s the type of results we want to bring the public.

 

We are in a tough spot and cannot fire at will because of the two contests entered in town.   Inevitably, we use selections from our Teaser Tuesday article in the contests at the Golden Nugget and William Hill.  Why give our fellow contestants an edge?  It is tricky enough to release our Lucky 7 early on Saturday.  Even that late of a release messes with our William Hill contest , since entries can be made late in the day on Saturday.  As long as we are in contention at William Hill, the Lucky 7 will be released on Saturday morning.

 

Keep an eye on our Twitter feed for the release of the Lucky 7.  Right now it is estimated to pub at 7:00am this Saturday.  It has been cookin’.  We sit at 11-3 ATS in the Golden Nugget Showdown the past two weeks which means that the Lucky 7 sits at 11-3 ATS.   Like we say… can do better.

 

Our goal is to provide the betting public with the best information we can offer.  Please pass along our new website to anyone you think will enjoy it.  Also, make sure to follow us on Twitter for the most timely information.  Have a great week and good luck.  -VS