Notes & Nuggets

Early exits will benefit these rested warriors in the NCAA Tournament

We are always looking for an edge.  An edge is hard to find in this town, but can be beneficial once discovered.

Momentum is probably the most important factor for a team entering the field of 68.  Some teams enter the Big Dance with more than enough energy (e.g., Duke) to carry them to the Sweet 16 and deeper, but what happens to the team that was shown an early ticket back home from their conference tournament?

Rest can lead to rust.  In the right situation, especially at this time of the season, an early exit can be as beneficial as a bye week in the NFL Playoffs. Seven teams standout to us.  The interesting variable is that each team has a solid coach leading the way, so watch out for deep runs from these select seven.  You might want to have these rested warriors making the Sweet 16 in your bracket.

 

North Carolina (Williams) – The Tar Heels won the National Championship the last time they were knocked out of the ACC Tournament as the #1 seed.  Enough said.

Louisville (Pitino) – The early exit might be best suited for this young team to refocus.  Pitino is the last coach anyone wants to face with a week off.

Kansas (Self) – Another quality team.  Our only question is the mindset of Josh Jackson.  Does he respond with his ‘lottery’ talent in full force? We say yes.

Purdue (Painter) – Swanigan, Edwards and Haas might be the best front court in the country.  A tough match-up for any team.

Virginia (Bennett) – The Cavs’ complex defense can confound any offense in the tournament.  Even more dangerous with time to prepare.

Baylor (Drew) – An athletic team that can dominate.  Baylor can make a knockout run at any point in a game, but has a glass jaw.

Dayton (Miller) – A wild card to make the Big Dance.  Three seniors lead the Flyers and will be a tough out if they get invited.  If they are relegated to the NIT, you can bet on them to advance all the way to Madison Square Garden.

Situational bet this Monday night on the Detroit Lions

Recently,  we have been reminded of the importance on reacting to situations that effect a team’s motivation.  The Houston Texans reacted in a positive manner when presented with the opportunity to win the AFC South.  When being criticized for the “ugly” win, Bill O’Brien interrupted the reporter to remind him that they won the AFC South for the second consecutive year.  Their motivation was in place to win.

We tweeted yesterday about this particular betting situation with Houston -150 on the moneyline.  The betting line had already moved from -130 to -150 after Tennessee had lost.  We realized the books were starting to factor in this motivation for Houston.  The opportunity was with Houston winning outright, not the pointspread.

Detroit has been presented a similar opportunity, so we bet them +7 on the pointspread and +240 on the moneyline.

The betting situation unveiled itself when Tampa Bay lost in New Orleans.  We had to watch the Bucs game to the very last minute, literally.  The Pewter Pirates are turning into a must-watch team that is never out of a game.  It was critical for Tampa to lose in order for us to bet in the manner that we had yesterday.

After Tampa Bay lost in New Orleans, the Detroit Lions will now have an opportunity to guarantee themselves a playoff spot with a win in Dallas.  Talk about motivation.  The Lions have worked the entire offseason and regular season to make the playoffs.  They are one game away from obtaining their goal.  A win in Dallas and the dangerous Detroit Lions will enter the Super Bowl tournament.  The motivation to win this Monday becomes even greater when you consider that the Green Bay Packers are their next opponent.  By winning in Dallas, they will be able to avoid the dreaded must-win game verses a red-hot Aaron Rodgers next Sunday (by the way, Thank you A-Rod for the easy cover verses Minnesota).

Now let’s look at the home team, the Dallas Cowboys.  They have already locked up the home field advantage throughout the playoffs.  Jerry Jones will make bank and good for him and his organization.  The Cowboys have had an amazing season and are destined to make a solid playoff run, but how is their mindset?

Seeing Carr and Mariota going down with broken legs will force Dallas to factor in such an unfortunate situation.  Whether it plays a role or not in their starting lineup won’t matter.  The mindset has creeped into the team psyche.  This game is of zero importance to the Cowboys’ franchise, other than getting it over without injury.

We won a close one on Houston in a situational bet and are still feeling the sting of going against one with San Diego State.  It is always a good thing to learn from previous mistakes.  Hopefully this time we are on the right side of a situation that is presented to the Detroit Lions, courtesy of the New Orleans Saints.

An additional nugget on this game is that Matthew Stafford will get to play in his dream game.  He gets to face the Dallas Cowboys on Monday Night Football in AT&T Stadium.  The stadium will be packed and we expect to seeing him at his best. Stafford won the state championship as a 5-star recruit at Highland Park High School in Dallas.  His motivation to play at a champion’s level should be in place.

We are betting three times as much on Detroit +7 than we are on the moneyline, but have the moneyline bet to be a nice kicker if the Lions can win outright.

Our Bets:

Detroit +7
Detroit +240 on the moneyline.

Rolling the dice on the Houston Cougars in the 2016 Las Vegas Bowl

This year, the Las Vegas Bowl is our favorite game to bet of the 2016-17 NCAA College Football Bowl season.  Like 2015, we will start the bowl season with our largest bet of the bowl season.  We placed our biggest bet of the 2015-16 bowl season on the San Diego State Aztecs in the Hawaii Bowl. The Aztecs easily won 42-7 over the Cincinnati Bearcats.  The set up for the Hawaii Bowl was one of the strongest we have seen in years.  Betting against Tuberville in a bowl is always a smart way to go, plus SDSU had key factors in its favor and dominated the game as we forecasted.  On December 17th 2016, the Houston Cougars will be our biggest bet of this year’s bowl season.

In an ironic twist, our bet will be on the Houston Cougars over the San Diego State Aztecs. Both teams were early candidates for the coveted Cotton Bowl spot, which was taken by the undefeated Western Michigan Broncos.  SDSU and UH failed to maintain their high expectations, even though they both started with wins against PAC 12 and BIG 12 schools, respectively.  Houston showed their first chink in the amour against Navy, while San Diego State lost to South Alabama as a 19-point road favorite.

Like most analysts, we look for an edge.  Which team is more motivated to be in this bowl and will play with the urgency to win?  This year that edge rests with the Houston Cougars.  One of the reasons is because of the talented roster of experienced athletes, no doubt that the Cougars can compete with anyone, just ask Bob Stoops.  San Diego State has a talented team too, although the quarterback advantage is solidly in the camp of the Cougars with Greg Ward, Jr. under center.

A key differential is the coaching situation.  Rocky Long has been a beast when it comes to winning games for us.  We have leaned on Rocky during his days in ABQ and Sunny San Diego.  His teams are well coached and fundamentally solid. In the meantime, Houston lost coach Tom Herman to University of Texas. So why would Houston have a coaching edge?  It is because the regents at the University of Houston moved quickly to name Major Applewhite as their new head coach, replacing the departed Herman.

Count us as fans of Major Applewhite.  While not physically imposing, Major was a much better quarterback than Chris Sims and could have lead the Longhorns to more victories.  Longhorn fans will remember how Sims seemed to always choke in the most important games of the year.  Major was always more fundamentally sound than Phil Sims’ son.  Applewhite was a winner as a college quarterback, as an offensive coordinator and he will be as the head coach of the Houston Cougars.  We think this was the best move for the program.  UH shot to the top of our list of bowl teams after it was made official with the announcement of Applewhite as their head coach.  Also, there was good news in hearing that Todd Orlando will stay as the Defensive Coordinator of the Cougars for the Las Vegas Bowl.  His defense is loaded with Upperclassmen and we liked hearing that he wanted to be in Las Vegas for their final collegiate football game.   After the game, he will catch a NetJet to Austin and join Herman to lead the Longhorns back to the glory days.

Our main concern with this bet is Donnel Pumphrey and that is quite a concern.  He should have been in the mix with Jackson and Watson for the Heisman Trophy.  Dude ran for over 2000 yards and got very little national press.  Pumphrey is, by far, the key factor in this game.  He will be playing his final college football game in his home town and down the road from Canyon Springs High School where he was Nevada’s Gatorade High School Football Player of the Year.  If this cat gets going, we could very well lose this bet.

Our analytics isolated a strong edge to the Houston Cougars rushing defense to negate Pumphrey.  This will be the best defense that the San Diego State Aztecs has faced in 2016.  We think the Cougars can make the Aztecs’ offense one dimensional and thereby limiting Pumphrey’s production.  Early points by Houston will be extremely important.  They must put SDSU in catch-up mode.  The Greg Ward, Jr. led offense of the Cougars should be able to move the ball and score on the Aztec defense.  This is another reason why maintaining Applewhite was pivotal to us betting large on Houston.

The blue print on how to defeat the Aztecs was drawn up by Colorado State a few weeks ago.  We think that Applewhite and Orlando will be applying a similar, albeit adjusted game plan, to defeat San Diego State.  Even though the game is closer in proximity to San Diego, we think that Houston fans might equal and possibly outnumber Aztec fans in Sam Boyd Stadium.

Add into the mix, Greg Ward, Jr.  The dynamic signal caller of the Houston Cougars is poised to have another solid game.  He has had time to heal the bumps and bruises of the regular season, plus he will be very motivated in his last college football game.  A stellar performance this Saturday and his draft stock will rise to place him in the 2nd round of next year’s NFL Draft.  Again, this is where maintaining the continuity of Applewhite on the sideline will benefit UH in this game.  Applewhite is the Offensive Coordinator of the Cougars and knows how to utilize the skill set of #1.

We like the fact that Orlando wanted to stay to coach his guys one last time.  He wanted the head coaching gig at Houston, but was 3rd on the list after Kiffin and Applewhite.  Kiffin was passed on for a few reasons, although he was still their top choice until the lawyers got involved.

Like we said, the Houston Cougars bolted to the top of the bowl list because Applewhite was chosen over all the other candidates for the job.  He had 2 days of recruiting distraction to deal with until being freed to prepare and focus on the Aztecs.

We like the Houston Cougars to win the game, but we don’t want to touch the -3 or -3.5 pointspread and get beat with the dreaded backdoor cover  We bet the Cougars -165 on the moneyline last Saturday afternoon at Westgate and Station Casinos.  The good news was that Station Casinos bumped the line to -170 right after we placed our bet.  We aren’t the largest gamblers in town, but we impact the betting line many times.  Plus, the staff at Vegas Sports loves seeing the line move right after our bet is placed.  This tends to be a positive indicator that we are on the winning side of the action.

#HTownTakeover has hit the Vegas Strip and our cash is going along for the ride.

Bet the Houston Cougars this Saturday to win over the San Diego State Aztecs in the 25th Las Vegas Bowl.

Lucky 7: GN Showdown Selections Week 3

Our contest entry in The Golden Nugget Friday Football Showdown is off to a solid start and right in the mix.  We need to be in the Final 8 to entry the true Showdown to have a chance at glory.  This is fun as long as we are competitive. As mentioned previously, there are experienced and seasoned professional sports gamblers that have entered the Showdown. Let’s hope that we can do better than last week.  Our selections hit 5-2 ATS, which is terrific in most settings.  The Golden Nugget or the Westgate’s SuperContest are all about getting off to a fast start, but also crushing the number.  Remember CH Ballers in 2014? They ran away with the SuperContest nailing an incredible winning percentage of 76% ATS.

 

Unfortunately, we left Central Michigan and Toledo off the Golden Nugget card last week.  We had them in the William Hill College Football contest (7-0 ATS by the way) and bet a nice amount on Toledo.  Our first priority is to make money through dynamic sports betting, but a close second is to win the Golden Nugget Showdown, then the William Hill CFB contest.  Plus, we can’t forget the new website and a much needed update to the mobile apps. The work never seems to stop and that is fine by us.

 

This tends to be a difficult week for us.  Some teams are starting to find a groove, some are healing from injury while others are the posers that will soon collapse.  Like we say, there is a lot of grinding in this business.  Our colleague Mike B. has a better grind at the WSOP and the plethora of poker tournaments her enters around the world.

 

It seems that somehow our selections fall into a theme.  Last week, we bet chalk.  This week it is picking against teams with injuries in key positions. After much consideration and research, our staff has isolated seven games that we believe offer value on this week’s card at the Nugget.

 

 

Washington -11

 

Our hope is that we are not late to the Huskies party.  This team has been dominant in its first few games.  We like so much about this team. We like the coach, the players, the university, the home stadium, the colors and especially the beautiful city of Seattle.

There are a few reasons why we like the Huskies in this role even though they are double-digit conference road favorite.  Normally we will avoid this spot, but Zona has key injuries with their quarterback and running back.  Even if they play, Solomon and Wilson will not be at full strength.

 

This Washington team is strong in many areas. Solid recruiting by Sarkisian and Petersen is starting to pay dividends for a program that dominated the Pac10 a decade or two ago.  The Pac 12 has been a different story for the Huskies football program, but the script is being rewritten right in front of our eyes.

 
We have never been comfortable lying 11 on the road and in the conference, but we will this Saturday night.  Browning is off to a strong start.  Add in the incredibly creative mind of Chris Petersen and the Huskies have become a dynamic offense.  Sark brought in the pieces, but left too early.  Petersen is the ideal candidate as the Huskies coach and will continue the positive direction of this program.

 

 

Minnesota -16.5

 

Minnesota is off a bye and at home. We might leave it at that. Colorado State gave them a fight last year in Hughes Stadium, but a lot of talent has left Ft. Collins since that game.  The Golden Gophers should be able to dominate both sides of the line. We especially like the potential of a dominating rushing attack that will grind away at the stamina of the Rams defensive line.  We are still not sure about this Minnesota program and look forward to see how they perform in today’s game.

 

Colorado State is a year or two away from being able to compete on this level. Give the program 2 years in their new, beautiful on campus stadium that will open in 2017.  It could take the Colorado State Rams right to the Big 12 (if that window is still open).  The Big 12 can squeeze it’s way right into Pac 12 Country. It has to be a tempting thought for the conference.

 

 

Akron +6

 

Here we are again selecting against our founder’s alma mater.  It worked last week, so we are going to try it this week. The schedule makers have not done any favors for the Mountaineers. Sure Akron has been a weak program in the past, but that is no longer the case.  Terry Bowden has this program on the rise.  We selected against the Zips in week 1 when they visited Madison.  They made some plays, but couldn’t take advantage of them.  Last week, the Zips were clicking on all cylinders.  They started slow, but unloaded on Marshall and walked away with a convincing win.

 

Now App State has to visit an Akron team with momentum.  This is right after hosting the biggest sporting event in the High Country.  The Mountaineers have to hit the road at a time where their bearings a still off.  Once again, the Mountaineers have another reason to displeased with the schedule maker.  Marcus Cox’s injury will hamper the ability for the Mountaineers to keep pace with the Zips.

 

App State has a good program and should be competitive this season, but not until they can stop focusing on the non-conference schedule.

 

 

Air Force -3.5

 

We love selecting the military academies whenever we can.  Army might have surprised a lot of people this year, but not us.  We cashed on the cadets of West Point in the first two weeks of the season and in week 1 of both contests.  This time our selection is the side of the Falcons. Utah State showed the other night, against Arkansas State, that the football program is competitive under the guidance of Coach Wells.  The recent edge that the Aggies have had over the Falcons has graduated.  The playmaker quarterbacks are gone, as are the fast and powerful linebackers that play on Sundays.

 
The only concern we have with this selection is the Navy game next week in the Springs.  The leadership in any branch would accept a 2-10 record, as long as the program wins the Commander-in-Chief’s trophy.  We know that the Navy game plan is in place.  The key to this selection is the focus of the Air Force team.  We think the program has the capability of achieving the goal of recapturing the Commander-in-Chief’s trophy, along with a Mountain West title.  Since this is the opening game of the conference schedule, the focus should be in place.

 

 

Miami -9.5

 

Betting the largest spread on this Sunday’s NFL card with the Dolphins.  Again, we find ourselves selecting against a team dealing with injuries.  It would be asking a lot of Cody Kessler to start taking snaps with the 1’s for the first time this week and be competitive in Miami.  The Dolphins are sitting at 0-2.  They must have had the same schedule maker as App State with having to play the first two games on the road in Seattle and Foxborough, the toughest venues in the NFL to walk away the W.

 
Now they get to play a depleted Browns team on their 3rd quarterback in as many weeks.  Hello Ndamukong Suh.  The Miami defense has to be licking it chomps facing the Browns in this spot.

 
Wonder what the humidity will feel like?  Let’s see, we like to gamble.  Let’s just say it is going to be hot on the field at Hard Rock Stadium.  Another injury to content with form the Browns is that of Corey Coleman.  This dude is a playmaker.  He cashed some big tickets for us while in college.  His game in Norman comes to mind really fast.  Josh Gordon is still suspended.  Something tells us that the Browns organization is taking the Philadelphia 76ers path on building a team.

 
Adam Gase has proven to be a more than competent offensive coordinator.  We think that he will take this opportunity as a head coach to expand his playbook.  He has to teach and show his team how to be a dynamic offense (like in Chicago and Denver).  Jay Cutler has shown the immediate effect of not having Gase design his offense.  This is the man that invested Tebow Time.  He will be successful in South Beach and it starts this Sunday verses the Browns.

 

 

Cincinnati -3

 

If this line was -3.5,  we might have passed on this game and selected one of the three college football games waiting in the mix.  Cincinnati will be the toughest team that the Broncos have faced all year.  They are a complete team and solid in every phase of the game.  The Bengals biggest hurdle the past couple of years is that they create some of their own misery.  Bengals fans know what we are talking about.  If this team is focused and plays at their potential, very few could beat them at home or on the road.

 
This week they face the defending Super Bowl Champs lead by a quarterback that has two wins under his belt.  Siemian has played well and we rode with the Broncos to a fun pointspread cover last week when Miller and Ray combined for the sack-strip-score covering the 6… fun stuff.  Even for an experienced quarterback, it would be tough to win on the road in this situation.  The Broncos have a good rushing attack and one of the league’s best defenses.  That is a formula to win on the road, but not this week.  Cincinnati is too complete of a team and can’t let an early must-win game slip away.

 
We expect a focused Bengals team to start this game fast and maintain pressure on the Broncos deep into the 4th quarter.  The prima donna receivers in Denver are already bitching about not getting the ball, when they should be happy sitting at 2-0 in the AFC West.  D-Ware, Green and Stephenson injuries hurt, but our selection is more based on the task facing Trevor Siemian.  We have summoned the dynamic duo of Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap in the past (verses Seattle last year).  We look for these two dogs putting pressure on the Denver signal caller and force an error or two or three or four.

 

 

Dallas -7

 

Dallas rounds out our Golden Nugget Showdown card. Once again, as with Minnesota, Akron, Washington and Miami, we select a team facing an opponent dealing with key injuries.  Chicago has taken some lumps early in the season.  Carson Wentz and Brockstar picked apart a Chicago secondary that isn’t getting much help from the front four.  This is a big edge for to the Cowboys.  Expect Ezekiel Elliott to have his first 100 yard game as a pro this Sunday night.  As of this writing, the news for Jeffery still shows him as questionable.  We hope a talent like his will wait to heal, but he will be limited if he plays.  This will put pressure on the Hoyer-to-White combination.  Our works says that Chicago is in trouble against the Cowboys.

 
The home crowd should be very enthusiastic after the ‘boys came back against the Redskins.  The team salvaged their season last week.  It was the first win without Romo under center in about 100 games. The practices must be phenomenal at Valley Ranch.  The Cowboys have an opportunity for a NFC Conference win and get back in the playoff hunt.  The Cowboys will send every in Jerry’s World home happy (except for those catching a flight back to O’Hare).

 
This has been a challenging contest and we hope that our work will pay off with another winning weekend.  Good luck – VS

Teaser Tuesday: AFC West Winners verses East Coast Losers

This week our Teaser Tuesday will consist of the two teams that we think will be fighting for the AFC West Division title in Denver on January 1st, Denver Broncos and Oakland Raiders.  This teaser also uses a successful strategy that we have bet for many years in week 2 of the NFL season.  We like to tease home teams that won last week verses teams that lost at home in the first game of the season.  Add in that the Falcons and Colts are from the Eastern Time Zone and will be traveling West.  We feel confident in the way this teaser sets up.

 
Denver and Oakland have solid home crowds and won the first game of the NFL season after falling behind, while Atlanta and Indy lost home games after leading their respective games.

 
We used the Raiders last week verses the New Orleans Saints in our Young Gun teaser with the Bucs.  Derek Carr engineered 22 points in the 4th quarter to out duel Drew Brees in the Super Dome and walked away with the win.  We expect them to press Atlanta from the opening drive.  Whether on offense or defense, the edge sides with the Black & Silver.  Specifically, watch the match up of Mack & Irvin verses Matthews.  Matty Ice will be melting under the bright California sun from the Oakland pass rush.  Mack & Irvin will account for 3+ sacks.

 
Atlanta didn’t address their biggest needs in the offseason.  We expected The ATL to select OL or DL, instead they drafted Keanu Neal (a safety out of Florida).  While Neal is a solid player, he has been sidelined due to an injury and will be of no help to Falcon’s defense.

 
Denver completes the second leg of our 2-team, 6-point teaser.  Indy was handed one of the worst losses that we have seen in years.  After taking the lead in the final minute of their game last week, the porous Colts defense let Stafford lead the Lions down the field for the winning field goal.  Detroit made enough mistakes in that drive (and game) to lose it.  The victory was all but gift wrapped by the Indianapolis Colts.  Now the Colts have to travel to Mile High.  Talk about a tough trip.  The Broncos are rested and are settled at QB.  We think the Broncos defense is fast enough to negate any edge that the talented Andrew Luck provides the Colts.  He is still very dangerous and can take over a game.

 

The backdoor cover (BDC) is vulnerable in each of these games.  The teaser bet gives us cushion to avoid the dreaded BDC through a garbage score.
We will tease the point spread down so that both teams need to win.  Sometimes we like to juice live dogs, but in this tease we are going with the home teams in Oakland and Denver to just win baby!

 
This is a 2-team, 6-point teaser at South Point.  We bet $120 to win $100

 

Denver Broncos  (pick)
Oakland Raiders  + .5

 

FYI, South Point is one our 7 favorite sports books in town… more about that list later

Golden Nugget Lucky 7, Week 1

Dare we call it the Lucky 7, but it seems to fit.  We are going to start writing about the 7 selections for the 2016 Golden Nugget Friday Football Showdown.  This contest is scheduled to start this weekend and last until week 10 in the NFL.  After Week 10 is completed, the top 8 contestants will advance to the next stage.  Technically, the top 7 contestants and the Wild Card winner will advance to the next stage.  The Wild Card winner is the contestant with the best winning percentage during the final two weeks (Week 9 and 10) of the Showdown. The amount of games to select is increases during the Wild Card weeks up to 9 games.

 

Hopefully we can be competitive during the entire run of the Showdown.  It will be more fun to have worthwhile selections the entire ten weeks of the contest.  There are some top dogs that will be in the mix.  They are seasoned veterans of the sports handicapping contest world.  That is their strength.  Like golf, our main competition is ourselves.  We will be more than glad to land near 55%, but we’ll always aim higher.

 

At Vegas Sports, we prefer to adjust our selections throughout the season.  Bad streaks and some full moons have been known to cramp our style.  This results in times where we have had to walk away for a week or two.  That can’t happen in the Showdown.  On the positive, we like that the selections revolve around NFL and College sides and totals.  The selection of games and options intrigues us while creating an opportunity to identify value.

 

Let the games begin.

 

21. ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS -9

Our first pick and our largest bet of the week (bet placed last Sunday at Wynn at -7.5 and -8).  West Point was our 1st bet of the season too.  Call us biased, but we always favor the academies.  We look for reasons to bet on Army, Navy or Air Force (not against them).  The Black Knights have some great advantages in this game.  First of all, they beat Temple as 14 point underdogs last Friday.  That was a huge win for the program and now those cadets are knocking on the best start to an Army team in quite a while.  Everyone on campus and at plenty of bases across the world are talking Army football.  This game is huge, make no mistake about it.  The next home game at West Point isn’t scheduled until October 15th.  The formula was successful against a talented Temple team on the road.  We expect another terrific game plan from this coaching staff.  Go Army.

 

93. Auburn Tigers -19

Clemson literally escaped Jordan-Hare with a 6 point win.  Arkansas State won’t be as fortunate.

 

97. Air Force Falcons -20

Another team that we have cash on and picking in this contest.  We like this one a lot and have plenty of reasons.  More about this team later.  It’s time to fly.

 

145.  Iowa Hawkeyes -15

We bet this one a little too early at Wynn.  Our ticket has the Hawkeyes -17.  The perils of the early bet considering that we could get them for -15.  The only positive thing is that there is no hook on this bet.  Iowa should roll covering the 17 in this big Midwest recruiting battle between the Big 10 and Big 12.

 

165.  New Mexico Lobos -12.5

This one could be tough giving 12.5 on the road in a rivalry game.  It has the markings of a losing ticket.  There is no bet here, only GN Showdown.

 

190.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3

Our only dog on the ticket.  That is a scary thought, but the Bucs make a barking dog in match-up with The ATL.  The Carolina loss in Denver positions this as an early huge game for both teams.  We have a bet on the Bucs’ moneyline +140.  The defense will be more aggressive this season, while the offense has matured a full year under Jaboo.

 

217.  Houston Texans – 6

Part of a 2-team teaser with Arizona Cardinals.  We might bet this one straight up later.  Houston needs to win here to prove that Brock On was worth the big bucks.  Defense is the calling card to this team… expect a dominating performance from the Texan’s D.

 

As always, good luck this week.

Great Young Arms Catching A Lot Of Points : Bonus Teaser Tuesday

We’ll make this one quick, since it’s a bonus for opening weekend:

 

We are betting on two of the NFL’s rising quarterbacks that someday might face each other in the Super Bowl.  Their teams did play against each other in Super Bowl XXXVII.  In this teaser, we bet on Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Oakland Raiders.  Both teams are directed by very talented and dynamic quarterbacks with potent offenses.  The teaser bet gives us additional points which should keep the bet live in both games right down to the end(if needed).   Atlanta and New Orleans have defenses which will rank in the bottom third of the league, while Tampa Bay and Oakland counter with offenses that will rank in the top third of the league.  Advantage Tampa Bay and Oakland.

 

We think Tampa Bay can win outright and have a bet on the Buccaneers +140 on the moneyline.  The current Defensive Coordinator was last employed in the NFL as the Atlanta Falcons Head Coach.  Stated or unstated, revenge is in play.  Plus, word in Tampa is the defensive players love his scheme.  In our 2nd leg of the teaser the potent Oakland Raiders will take on an overrated, but always dangerous Saints team playing in their home opener.  It looks like Oakland will be attacking this year.  Carr has a cannon for an arm and he has one of the best wide receivers in the NFL as his main target.  Latavius Murray is a 1,000+ yard back going up against a defense that gave up 4.9 yards per rush in 2015.

 

The original point spread at South Point had the Bucs +3.5 at Atlanta and Oakland +1 at New Orleans.  As with most of our teasers, we look to meet or cross over key point spread numbers.  We bet a 2 team , 6.5 point teaser which meant that a bet of $130 had to be placed to win $100.

 

Tampa Bay +10

Oakland +7.5

 

Side note: we have written about theme betting and have been at it for years.  Seems like others in town are starting to follow our lead and using theme betting.  That’s fine with us, welcome to our party.

Anchor team: One of our favorite ways to position a teaser bet

We call them anchor teams.  This is one of our favorite ways to bet a teaser.  Usually we bet 2-team teasers, but sometimes we’ll bet a 3-team teaser.  Rarely will we tease more than 3 teams in one bet.  The value seems to get diminished with each added team.

 
The anchor team strategy revolves around one game that we feel will be a solid bet given the point adjustment from the teaser.   In week one of the NFL season, the Arizona Cardinals seem to fit the bill perfectly.

 
Arizona Cardinals have a great opportunity to win a big game verses a wounded New England team they might face in Houston on February 5th.  Of course, New England has a major disadvantage without Brady under center.   Add in some revenge by Chandler Jones and this one could get ugly.  The tough thing for us it knowing the Patriots have the potential to put 7 on the board fast.  They have a quick strike offense that can put points on the board in the blink of an eye.  The line started with Zona -4.5 (after the Brady suspension) and it was originally a Pick ‘em game before his suspension.

 

Watch for Jones to dominate.  He will be attacking the New England offensive line from the left and the right.  We expect him to have a multiple sack night in Glendale.

 
We love the teaser bet in this spot.  For those that know how we bet, we like teasing the line down to a team getting the W.  This week, our Teaser Tuesday bet includes a second teams that we think might face Arizona in the NFC Championship Game.   We are going to pair the Arizona Cardinals with the Seattle Seahawks.  The appealing situation is betting on two of the league’s best teams in their home opener verses AFC East teams that are traveling west.

 
As with all of our bets for Teaser Tuesday, we will only bet to win $100.  Since we have teased 6.5 points, we have to bet $130 to win $100.

 
We like Seattle to win and cover the 8 points.  In fact, we bet Seattle straight up -8 at William Hill on July 26th.  Ever since that bet was placed, we wished more bet on the Seahawks, but unfortunately the line moved.  This is where we like to pair up an anchor bet in a teaser bet.  Our decision was to tease Seattle down to -2.5 with Arizona +1.5.  The 6 point, 2-team teaser puts us into position to have Seattle below the magic number of 3 and Zona just needing the win.

 

Arizona +1.5
Seattle -2.5

 

Bonus:  We pressed the anchor team (Arizona) with another home team, the Houston Texans.   This will give us a way to bet on the Houston Texans opening weekend verses a Chicago Bear team that they should beat.  The point spread on Arizona has changed, but not enough to keep us from another bet on our anchor team.  This 6-point teaser bet was placed at the Westgate, so we had to bet $130 to win $100.

 

Arizona  (pick)

Houston (pick)

Golden Nugget Football Showdown 2016 selections will be released every Friday

We will be releasing all of our selections for the Golden Nugget Friday Football Showdown 2016 after the 2:00pm PST deadline to submit the picks.  The contest consist of seven (7) selections from a set list of college and NFL sides and totals.  The list of games will be provided by the Golden Nugget by  Wednesday afternoon.  Seven selection each week will be difficult, since there are times when we like to fly low with only one or two games in a given week.  It will be fun and we are looking forward to competing with some of the best sports handicapping talent in the world.

 

As with all our our information, there is no charge.   Don’t pay for mediocrity when you can reference our world class skill for free.  Our philosophy is that anyone can be a great sports handicapper, they just need the right tools and unbiased advise.

 

The 7 selections will be released every Friday at 7:11pm PST.

 

Pressing into ACC Power

It’s been a tough start to the college football season.  Thank goodness we hedged our Arkansas bet, but still took it on the chin this weekend.  More about that later in Notes & Nuggets, this is more timely of an issue.

 
We are in somewhat of a damage control mode and it started on Saturday night.  BYU cashed in the final seconds of a late Saturday night game at Zona.  Have to say it was pretty awesome to have a freshman kicker nail a game winning field goal in the final seconds.  It was a great game and fun bet too.  Oldroyd came through with a pressure-packed game winning 33 yard field goal in Glendale after the game looked like the Wildcats were going to pull it out late.  This helped to lessen the losses on Arkansas and Carolina.  We tend to press if we fall behind.  It doesn’t fit the ‘typical’ model from the crowd that use money management systems, but our strategy has always been different.  The majority of money management systems used by those folks never seemed to ever make sense to us.  Different can do well in this town, since sports gambling only pays to those who are contrarian.

 
Back to tonight’s game: Florida State .vs Ole Miss. The game is in Orlando, so advantage Florida State.  Ole Miss counters with the Number 1 draft pick of the 2017 NFL draft.  Cleveland are you ready for a quarterback named Kelly in your backfield?

 
The first leg of our ACC Power teaser was effective with Clemson winning outright on the plains.  This is the reason why we love the tease.  Clemson closed the game as a 9 point favorite, so they didn’t cover the point spread.  Our teaser took the line down to Clemson only needing to win.

 
Fast forwarding  to today… our teaser sits on Florida State +1.  The tease is in full effect.

 
Ole Miss is a solid program that has transformed itself into a national power.  The Rebels have cashed for us plenty of times and burned us when betting against them.  Par for the course.

 
We decided to press into the Seminoles in this spot. They and the ACC have an opportunity to get into serious National Championship talk with a win.  Again, all we are looking for is the win. Clemson is in and The Ville looks to be adding it’s name into the ACC Championship mix, let’s see how September 17th pans out.  The ACC Atlantic is slowing turning itself into the SEC West.

 
Our thinking on this one is that it all comes down the trenches.  We see an advantage on both lines for Florida State.  The offensive line will unleash playmaker Dalvin Cook, Jr. to dominate the game, especially on the right side.  We expect 125+ yards by the Florida State Heisman Hopeful.  Florida State will avoid having to put the game on the shoulders of Francois, so don’t expect a Jaboo-type debut for the redshirt freshman.  He will make just enough plays to keep the Rebels guessing. The talent in the wide receiving corps is deep and experienced.  Campbell wears no. 11 for a reason.

 

Florida State -200 on the Money Line